Chief Editor: Cai Fang
Associate Editor: Wang Meiyan
Abstract
As the working age population at age of 15 to 59 peaked in 2010 and began to shrink afterwards,population dependence ratio has increased,indicating the disappearance of demographic dividend in China.It is a great achievement for China to have created favorable institutional conditions,take advantage of favorable population dynamics and witnessed fast economic growth in the past over 30 years.However,according to the law of both demographic transition and economic growth,it is inevitabl for demographic dividend to disappear and rapid economic growth to slow down eventually.
Although one has to learn to live with the Chiese economy growing at a normal rate,there are things we can do in order to creat institutional dividends.For example,by removing various institutional obstacles to the supply,allocative efficiency of production factors,GDP growth rate can be enhanced in the post-demographic dividend period.With the theme of "from demographic dividend to institutional dividend",this volume intends to discuss related issues that can both enhanced future growth rate and balance the growth pattern.
The contributors to this volume,who are academic researchers in different areas,investment economists,and government officals,discuss population changes,labor market trends,situation of employment and social security,and macro economy,reveal institutional potentials for growth,and suggest reform policies for family-planning,labor market institutions,hukou system,urbanization pattern,education system,and growth pattern.
Contents
Topic One: Demographic Shifts and Policy Adjustments
1 Monitoring Survey Report on Migrant Workers in 2012 ……………………Household Survey Office, National Bureau of Statistics／001
1. Scale of Migrant Population Size／001
2. Regional Distribution of Migrant Workers／003
3. Gender, Age, Education and Training of Migrant Workers／005
4. Employment of Migrant Workers／007
5. Income of Migrant Workers／008
6. Housing of Migrant Workers／011
7. Social Security of Migrant Workers／012
2 The Trend of China’s Population Development and Policy Adjustments…………………………Li Jianmin／016
1. New Trend in Population Changes／016
2. Some Problems with China’s Low Fertility Rate／023
3. Adjustments to Family-Planning Policy: Values and Principles／026
3 Population Aging and Sustainable Development…………………………………………Song Xiaowu／031
1. Characteristics of China’s Population Aging／031
2. Impacts of China’s Population Aging／033
3. Policy Responses to Population Aging／036
4 Labor Supply and Policies during the New Stage of Economic Development……………………Du Yang, Lu Yang／038
1. The Necessity of Stimulating Labor Supply／038
2. Changes in Labor Force Participation／041
3. Changes in Unemployment Rate and Their Characteristics／051
4. Employment Rate and Working Hours／055
5. Conclusions and Suggestions／059
5 Changes in Global Population in the Next Twenty Years and Implications for China………………Zheng Zhenzhen／062
1. Research Background／062
2. Characteristics of and Trends in Global Population Changes／064
3. Problems and Challenges Facing Various Countries／076
4. Discussion: Implications for China／078
Topic Two: Household Registration System Reform and Urbanization
6 Wage Inflation: Dilemma Making the Labor Market Work……………………………………Cai Fang／082
1. Strong Labor Market／083
2. Factors Constraining Labor Productivity Growth／085
3. Wage Inflation Can Go Too Far／087
4. Necessity of Public Policy Reform／090
7 The Cost of Household Registration System Reform Equalizing Basic Public Services and Continuing Urbanization………………Qu Xiaobo, Cheng Jie／093
1. Introduction／093
2. Nature of Household Registration System Reform and Current Research／095
3. Approaches to and Methods for Estimating Household Registration
System Reform Cost／098
4. Household Registration System Reform Cost Estimates／100
5. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions／107
8 Discussions on Household Registration System Reform Paths……………………………………Kam Wing Chan／111
1. Introduction／111
2. Schemes and Steps of Household Registration System Reform／113
3. Public Cost Estimations on the Urbanization of Migrant Workers／119
4. Conclusions／123
9 Changes in Migrants Workers’Consumption Level and Their Determining Factors……………………Wang Meiyan／126
1. Introduction／126
2. Data／128
3. Human Capital, Employment, Income and Social Security for Migrants／128
4. The Consumption Level of Migrant Households and
Its Determining Factors／133
5. Main Conclusions and Policy Suggestions／143
10 The Implementation of Active Employment Policies on Groups with Employment Difficulties……………………Du Yang, Cheng Jie／146
1. The Growing Human Resource Value of Groups with
Employment Difficulties ／146
2. How Do Groups with Employment Difficulties Participate
in the Labor Market?／150
3. The Characteristics of Unemployment among Groups with
Employment Difficulties／154
4. The Implementation of Pro-Active Employment Policies／159
11 Social Protection is Not a Negative Incentive: Solving the “Muller Problem”in Stages……………………Cai Fang／163
1. Introduction／163
2. Strong Labor Market since the Lewis Turning Point／166
3. Three Vulnerable Groups／168
4. Policy Suggestions／176
Topic Three: Educational Development and Macro-Economy
12 Population Structure Shapes Macro-Economic Pattern……………………Peng Wensheng／179
1. Introduction／179
2. The Main Chracteristics of China’s Population Structure／180
3. Population Structure and Economic Growth／185
4. Population Structure and Economic Structure／188
5. Population Structure and Inflation／190
6. Population Structure and Asset Price／195
7. Population Structure and Currency Credit Cycle／197
8. The Experiences of Developed Countries／200
13 The Labor Supply and Demand of Human Resources and Development of Higher Education in the Era of Mass Higher Education
……………………………………………………Hu Ruiwen, Zhang Haishui and Zhu Xi／210
1. The Rapid Development of China’s Higher Education／210
2. The Rapid Development of Higher Education Improves the Capacity
for Economic and Social Sustainable Development／214
3. The Next Ten Years: From Mass Higher Education to Universal Access／215
4. The New Situation of Demand and Supply of College Graduates
with the Rapid Development of Higher Education／217
5. The Main Goals of Higher Education Transition in the Era of
Mass Higher Education／224
6. Some Suggestions on Structural Adjustments and Transformative
Development of Higher Education／226
14 Changes in the Educational Level of China’s Current Workforce Its Future Prospects………………Xu Jiancheng, Zhang Shuang／229
1. The Size of China’s Labor Force and Changes in Their
Educational Level／229
2. The Size of China’s Work-Force by Industry and Sector and
Their Educational Level／232
3. The Size of China’s Work-Force by Occupation and Their
Educational Level／241
4. Prospects of China’s Future Human Resources Supply and Demand／245
5. Some Suggestions on Promoting China’s Human Resources Development／247
15 The Lewis Turning Point and A New Economic Development Pattern……………………Huang Yiping／250
1. The Economic Pattern of “High Growth and Deep Imbalance”
in the Past Decade／250
2. The Formation of “New Normal”for Economic Growth／252
3. Preliminary Evidence for Economic Rebalance／255
4. The Lewis Turning Point and the Reform of Factor Markets／260
5. Looking Forward to the Economic Policies of the New Administration／264
6. Eliminating the Fear of Economic Downturn／267
