Abstract: This paper discusses the possibility of manufacturing industries moving out of China, from the aspect of potential destinations. The nature of demographic dividend is human capital, so the consequent advantage of labour cost relies not only on infinite labour supply, but also on the education level and sustainable development of labour force. By these two standards, the manufacturing industries clustered in southeast coast of China will not move to either the developed countries, or other developing countries, but they will gradually move to central and west China. Thus, government needs to create institutional environments favorable for human capital accumulation and labour productivity increase. This will maintain the competitive advantage of labour cost and enhance total factor productivity.

（ in Reports on China’s Population and Labor (No.13)，Chapter 9 ，2012 ）