“Early Withdrawal of Migrant Workers” and Newtype Urbanization：Lewis Model and Current Economic Issues of China

Fan Gang1 & Zheng Xin2
（HSBC School of Business， Peking University1; China Development Institute12）

Abstract： Extending the analyses by Lewis Model， the paper shows that the recent labor shortage and wage increase of migrant workers in China's coastal areas are not as a case after Lewis Turning Point or the completion of labor reallocation， instead， it is because the “early withdrawal” of migrant workers from urban labor supply due to their being unable to stay in cities under the current rural land system and urban residential registration system.The policy implication of the analyses is naturally to speed up the urbanization of rural migrants in order to continue the industrialization.

Keywords: shortage of migrant workers， Lewis Turning Point， early withdrawal of migrant workers， urbanization

JEL Classification: J40， O14， O53

How Does China's New Labor Contract Law Affect Floating Workers?

Li Xiaoying1 & Richard Freeman2
（Sun Yatsen University1 & Harvard University and NBER2）

Abstract： China's new Labor Contract Law took effect on January 2008 and required firms to give migrant workers written contracts， strengthened labor protections for workers and contained penalties for firms that did not follow the labor code.This paper uses survey data of migrant workers in the Pearl River Delta before and after the law and a retrospective question on when workers received their first labor contract to assess the effects of the law on labor outcomes.The evidence shows that the new law increased the percentage of migrant workers with written contracts， which in turn raised social insurance coverage， reduced the likelihood of wage arrears， and raised the likelihood that the worker had a union at their workplace.

Keywords: Labor Contract Law， floating workers， labor rights

JEL Classification: J01， J28， J53， K31

Technological Change， Return to Education， and Gender Wage Differentials in Urban China

Xing Chunbing1， Jia Shuyan2 & Li Shi1
(School of Economics and Business Administration，Beijing Normal University1;Posts & Telecom Press2)

Abstract： Using nationally representative micro datasets， this article finds significant regional dispersions in gender wage differentials and returns to education in the Chinese urban labor market.Using these regional variations， this article analyzes the impact of return to education on gender wage differentials The results show that the return to education is negatively associated with the gender wage differentials.Using the samples of migrant workers， we find that the gender wage gap increased between 2005 and 2011. By using the fixed effects model， we also discover that the gender wage gap decreases when the return to education rises.These results indicate that promoting technological progress could narrow gender wage gap in urban China.

Keywords: technological change， return to education, gender wage differentials, migrant workers

JEL Classification: C13， I21， J31

Impacts of Demographic Structure Change on Economic Structure in China: An Analysis Based on Input-Output Model

Ni Hongfu1, Li Shantong2 & He Jianwu2
(National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences1; Development Research Centre of the State Council2)

Abstract： Using survey data from Chinese Household Income Project (1995, 2002 and 2007) and household population prediction data, we study the dynamic relationship between household head age and consumption structure. The empirical results show that there are significant differences in consumption structure among households with different ages. For example, the share of consumption on health care and medical services increases rapidly with the increase of age. Moreover, in a comparative static perspective, an inputoutput model is used to study the impact of demographic structure change on industrial and employment structure through the impact of consumption structure. The results indicate that demographic structure change has the biggest influence on service sector and its employment, but different service sectors are affected in different degrees. For example, the demand for medical and health care services will increase greatly, and as a result, the demand for technical personnel specialized on medical service, health care and elder care will also increase. Furthermore, by comparing different scenarios, it is evident that the effects of population aging on industrial and employment structure can be relieved if the current family planning policy is relaxed.

Keywords： demographic structure, consumption structure, inputoutput model

JEL Classification： J10, J11, J18

Decomposition and Mechanism of Movement of China's Labor Income Share

Zhou Minghai
(University of Nottingham Ningbo China)

Abstract： This paper decomposes the movement of labor income share since China's reform and opening up into employment, compensation and output effects.We find that the movement of labor income share is mainly determined by the net effects of the opposite movement of compensation and output effects, and the employment effect is relatively small Meanwhile, this paper distinguishes the decomposition of nominal and real labor income share, and finds that the real labor income share reflects the current situation of national income distribution of China. By using level and difference equations, the paper not only discusses the determinants of labor income share, but also analyzes the mechanism of movement of labor income share.We find that the affecting mechanisms of each variable on labor income share through three channels are different, but are consistent with the theoretical hypothesis and practical prediction.The output effect of industrial structure variable exceeds the other two effects, and the overall effect of industrial structure has the largest impact on the decrease of labor income share, which supports the “Kuznets fact” of movement of factor income share.

Keywords:  labor income share， employment effect， compensation effect， output effect

JEL Classification: E22, E23, E24, E25

Has Competition among Local Governments Worsened UrbanRural Income Gap? An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data from 1995 to 2007

Zhang Jianwu1, Zhao Qiuyun2 & Lan Lijun1
(School of Economics and Management, South China Normal University1; Guanghua School of Management, Peking University2)

Abstract： Existing literatures on explaining reasons of increasing urbanrural income gap mainly focused on abnormal income, transfer payments, urbanization and urban tendency policies, hierarchy and government revenue, etc. This paper provides a new explanation from the perspective of local government competition, especially investment competition. The empirical results based on provincial panel data from 1995 to 2007 show that the competition among local governments has significantly increased urbanrural income gap in China. The results are still significant and robust even after controlling for other potential factors which may affect urban-rural income gap. Besides, other factors like dependence on foreign trade, education level, GDP growth rate and industrial structure also affect urban-rural income gap.

Keywords： local government competition, urbanrural income gap, investment competition

JEL Classification： E21, E25, J1

The Impact of Public Healthcare Financing on Health Outcomes：Evidence from Crosscountry Panel Data

Chen Qiulin
（Institute of Population and Labor Economics，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

Abstract： The ultimate goal of healthcare system is to maintain and promote the health of the people，so the impacts on health outcomes are the fundamental measures to evaluate healthcare system.Financing mechanism，especially the division of financing responsibility between public and private，is the basic feature of a healthcare system.This article aims to study how public healthcare financing affects the health outcomes，using cross-country panel data of upper-high and high countries from 1995 to 2007.Empirical study verified the following hypothesis：Public financing is superior to private financing in improving health status in terms of population life expectancyMeanwhile，as a governmentled healthcare financing mechanism，public healthcare financing system may be affected by government behaviors.This paper also found that，more government health expenditure produces better health outcomes.Political decentralization is not key to influence health outcomes，while the consistency of local political leaders interests with local residents interest，as well as the balance of financial power and duties on public good provision，can improve health outcomes.

Keywords：public healthcare financing， private healthcare financing， government incentive， health outcome

JEL Classifications：I12， I13， H51

Impact of Income and Market Condition on the Nutrition Vulnerability of Rural Household in China:Evidence from CHNS

Sun Ying1,2 & Lin Wanlong1
(College of Economics & Management, China Agricultural University1;Economic School of Xuzhou Institute of Technology2)

Abstract： Because of the limitation of market volatility and production conditions, the farmers' income is not stable.The development of food consumption market in China rural is not perfect, but current food consumption of rural households has become increasingly commoditized and monetization during the process of marketization.Therefore, We need to pay more attention to the nutrition vulnerability of the rural households in the context of rising food pricesIn this paper, we used the Feasible Generalized Least Squares model to estimate households' ex ante distributions of future food consumption，using CHNS data.Then we measured the nutrition vulnerability on this basis.The results show that nutrition vulnerability measure can be accurately predicted two-thirds of the households' nutritional status in the future.The household income per capita and market conditions are important determinants of nutrition vulnerability.

Keywords: nutrition vulnerability, income, market condition, FGLS model

JEL Classification: I12, J17, R21

The Construction， Operation and Outcomes of Cooperative Industrial Relations：A Study on the Labor-Management Partnership in British National Health Services

Zhou Xiaoguang
(Institute of Population and Labor Economics， Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract： The overall purpose of this study is to examine the construction， operation and outcome of labor-management partnership.The paper selected three cases from the National Health Services (NHS) in the UK， and firstly introduced the institutional construction and the building of partnership structures at the national level in the NHS.Secondly， the paper examined the operation of partnership in the three cases through a longitudinal study，which included the partnership structures， the scope of partnership agenda and participants voice and behaviours in the three cases.Then， the paper measured the outcomes of partnership in three cases.By comparison， the paper pointed out the main factors that had impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of partnership， including the historical labor-management cooperation culture， a shared version between management and trade unions， the combination of partnership structures and agendas， participants' behaviours and trade unions' strength.

Keywords: labormanagement partnership， internal contexts， operation， outcomes evaluation

JEL Classification: J53， L50， P31

A Literature Review on Assistance， Employment and Welfare Dependence from an International View

Zhang Haomiao
（School of Public Administration， Sichuan University）

Abstract： Discussion about welfare dependence and its negative influence on employment has become a popular topic since 1980s in western countries.Some conventional wisdom contends that assistance plays a limited role in adjusting the gap between the rich and the poor， and it results in welfare dependence which does harm to employment. Under its influence， it has appeared worries about “raising idler” and discussions on welfare dependence by Minimum Living Standard Guarantee System in China recently On the aspects of theory and practice， whether assistance is bound to lead to welfare dependency? Whether employment is able to avoid welfare dependence and whether there is an issue of “raising idler” by Minimum Living Standard Guarantee System in China? Around the above issues， after collecting and generalizing existing theoretical and empirical studies from an international view， such points should be discerned: the relationship among assistance， employment and welfare dependence is rather complicated.The common understanding of “assistance leads to dependence and employment avoids dependence” is not always right. Besides， theoretical studies on “raising idler” by Minimum Living Standard Guarantee System in China are insufficient and the conclusions are different. Related empirical studies are rare and existed conclusions dont support the viewpoint that assistance results in welfare dependence.

Keywords: social assistance， employment， welfare dependence， minimum living standard guarantee system

JEL Classification: D60， I30， I38