摘要：劳动年龄人口的绝对减少意味着人口红利的消失，导致从“十二五”时期开始，中国潜在GDP增长率显著下降。因此，只要实际增长率不低于潜在增长率，通常就不会产生周期性失业现象。根据这种变化了的情况，就业关注点应该从总量岗位问题转向结构性失业问题。本文从农民工和城镇就业人员这两个城镇就业主要群体，考察中国劳动力市场上存在的结构性失业风险，并相应提出政策建议。
关键词：就业 周期性失业 结构性失业 劳动力市场
Change and Challenge of China’s Employment Situation
The absolute shrinkage of working age population indicates the disappearance of demographic dividend and the resultant slowdown of potential GDP growth rate in China. As long as actual growth rate remains at or above potential growth rate, cyclical unemployment will not occur. According to the change in development stages, policy focus should shift from creating jobs through economic growth to tackling with structural unemployment via upgrading of skills. This paper examines the risks of natural unemployment in urban labor market based on human capital characteristics of migrant workers and urban local workers and draws policy implications.
文章出处：全球化，2013年第5期