主编：蔡昉
出版社：社会科学文献出版社
出版日期：2011年8月
图书ISBN：978-7-5097-2488-0
简介：
2011年是“十二五”的开局之年。在实现金融危机冲击的V形恢复后，中国经济发展也进入了一个特殊重要的时期。保持经济的持续增长，系统地解决人口、就业和收入分配等社会经济问题，将有助于中国平稳地过渡到高收入经济。本书讨论了“十二五”期间劳动力市场面临的变化、挑战及相关的政策。
本书分为两篇，分别是有关就业和劳动力市场形势的专题报告，以及分析性的报告。在上篇中，收录了不同政府部门提供的关于农民工情况的报告。这些报告基于不同的调查，信息有一定的差异，但反映了相同的趋势。这些报告构成我们对农民工状况的认识基础。
下篇的各章对“十二五”期间劳动力市场形势及相关政策进行了分析。首先讨论了人口及劳动力市场因素如何对中国在中等收入阶段的发展构成挑战。在澄清关于中国劳动力市场一些重要而基本的认识之后，着重探讨了“十二五”时期劳动力市场形势可能发生的变化及政策应对措施。针对劳动力流动对收入分配，尤其是城乡收入差距变化产生的影响，本书结合刘易斯转折点后的劳动力市场特点，对收入分配形势可能出现的积极变化进行了探讨，以使对这一问题的研究受到更广泛的关注。
本书作者除了中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所的研究人员外，还邀请了来自国家统计局和农业部农村经济研究中心等单位的作者，力图反映更加广泛的研究成果和不同观点。
目录
Ⅰ 上 篇
1 专题报告一 新生代农民工的数量、结构和特点 …“新生代农民工研究”课题组／001
一 新生代农民工的数量和结构…………………………………………………………002
二 新生代农民工外出从业的特点………………………………………………………007
三 新生代农民工在外生活状况…………………………………………………………010
四 新生代农民工面临的主要问题………………………………………………………011
五 政策建议………………………………………………………………………………016
2 专题报告二 外出就业规模稳步扩大农民工工资持续
较快增长…………………………………………………全国农村固定观察点办公室／018
一 农村外出就业劳动力数量继续增加…………………………………………………018
二 农村外出就业劳动力的人口结构基本稳定…………………………………………019
三 农村外出就业劳动力跨省就业的比重再度回升……………………………………019
四 农村外出劳动力就业结构基本稳定…………………………………………………020
五 农村外出就业劳动力的外出时间与上年持平………………………………………020
六 农村外出就业劳动力的月收入水平继续提高，但增幅有所回落…………………021
Ⅱ 下 篇
3 第一章 “十二五”时期中国经济发展五大挑战 ……………………………蔡昉／023
一 “未富先老”…………………………………………………………………………024
二 “梅佐乔诺陷阱”……………………………………………………………………026
三 “读书无用论”………………………………………………………………………029
四 “保护依赖症”………………………………………………………………………031
五 “成长中的烦恼”……………………………………………………………………032
4 第二章 人口转变如何影响未来经济发展 ………………………………… 蔡昉／036
一 引言……………………………………………………………………………………036
二 刘易斯转折点…………………………………………………………………………039
三 老龄化挑战……………………………………………………………………………044
四 政策调整与选择………………………………………………………………………048
五 结语……………………………………………………………………………………053
5 第三章 中国劳动力市场的新因素 …………………………………蔡昉 王美艳／056
一 人口转变与农民工代际变化…………………………………………………………057
二 刘易斯转折点与工资上涨……………………………………………………………062
三 中国制造业的创造性毁灭……………………………………………………………065
四 劳动力市场制度建设…………………………………………………………………067
6 第四章 中国的就业总量与就业结构：重新估计与讨论……… 都阳 王美艳／070
一 导言……………………………………………………………………………………070
二 农业就业总量的高估及重新估计……………………………………………………072
三 城镇就业的统计偏差及重新估计……………………………………………………075
四 就业总量及其结构的讨论……………………………………………………………078
五 结论……………………………………………………………………………………083
7 第五章 城镇就业、非农就业与城市化 ………………………………………王美艳／085
一 城镇就业与城市化水平的关系………………………………………………………086
二 城镇就业与城市化水平预测…………………………………………………………091
三 劳动力供给能否满足城市化带来的城镇就业增长的需求…………………………094
四 非农就业与城市化水平的关系………………………………………………………096
五 主要结论………………………………………………………………………………100
8 第六章 劳动力市场转变条件下的自然失业率变化及其含义 …………都阳 陆旸／103
一 引言……………………………………………………………………………………103
二 劳动力市场转变与失业性质的变化…………………………………………………106
三 中国自然失业率的水平………………………………………………………………108
四 观察菲利普斯曲线……………………………………………………………………116
五 治理失业的政策建议…………………………………………………………………118
9 第七章 中等收入国家的就业特征与“十二五”期间的就业政策 ………曲玥／121
一 中等收入国家与就业弹性……………………………………………………………121
二 相似发展阶段的参照——中等收入时期的日本……………………………………124
三 相似中等收入时期的就业弹性——日本的情况……………………………………130
四 对“十二五”期间就业弹性的讨论…………………………………………………134
10 第八章 就业弹性变化及其对“十二五”期间就业政策的含义………屈小博／138
一 就业弹性变化的讨论及其解释………………………………………………………138
二 对就业弹性的判断与统计认识的误区………………………………………………144
三 对“十二五”期间就业政策的启示…………………………………………………147
11 第九章 “十二五”期间就业的产业结构变动与区域转移…………… 吴要武／153
一 非农就业增长迅速，新增就业越来越集中在城镇地区……………………………154
二 对就业弹性的估计……………………………………………………………………156
三 新增就业的数量与地区分布…………………………………………………………160
四 劳动力迁移的地区变化………………………………………………………………167
五 结论……………………………………………………………………………………169
12 第十章 工资增长、工资趋同与刘易斯转折点…………………… 蔡昉 都阳 173
一 导言……………………………………………………………………………………173
二 普通劳动者工资的提高趋势…………………………………………………………175
三 劳动力市场上的工资趋同……………………………………………………………178
四 结语和政策含义………………………………………………………………………185
13 第十一章 农民工收入水平与变化：基于不同来源数据的估计
……………………………………………………………………张展新 赵文 王桥／191
一 流出地法调查数据……………………………………………………………………192
二 流入地法调查数据……………………………………………………………………194
三 一个市域调查：宁波外来农民工的空间分布和收入特征…………………………198
四 外来农民工与本地劳动者的收入差距………………………………………………200
五 总结与思考……………………………………………………………………………203
14 第十二章 劳动力市场深化改革与城乡分割体制终结………张展新 侯慧丽／206
一 城乡分割体制和初期改革冲击………………………………………………………208
二 深化劳动力市场改革的重大举措……………………………………………………210
三 新世纪深化改革的意义………………………………………………………………214
四 城市层面和社区层面的“本地-外来”分割 ………………………………………216
五 户籍身份不平等的下降趋势…………………………………………………………221
六 结论与思考……………………………………………………………………………224
15 第十三章 农村劳动力流动对城乡居民收入差距统计的影响
………………………………………………………………… 高文书 赵文 程杰／228
一 城镇住户调查难以涵盖举家进城农民工……………………………………………229
二 农村住户调查中家庭外出从业成员收入难以调查…………………………………233
三 城市住户调查遗漏了大量应调查进城农民工………………………………………236
四 城乡居民收入差距的再估计…………………………………………………………239
五 总结和讨论……………………………………………………………………………241
16 第十四章 户籍制度改革与城乡社会福利制度统筹………………………… 蔡昉／243
一 引言……………………………………………………………………………………243
二 作为经济体制转轨的户籍制度改革…………………………………………………245
三 刘易斯转折点与改革激励……………………………………………………………248
四 新一轮户籍制度改革…………………………………………………………………251
五 总结与政策建议………………………………………………………………………255
CONTENTS
Ⅰ Part One
1 Special Report One New Generation of Migrant Workers:
Number, Structure and Characteristics
.... Project Team on “New Generation of Migrant Workers”／001
1. Number and Structure of New Generation of Migrant Workers .........／002
2. Employment Characteristics of New Generation of Migrant Workers ...／007
3. Living Conditions of New Generation of Migrant Workers ............／010
4. Main Problems Faced by New Generation of Migrant Workers ..........／011
5. Policy Implications ...............................................／016
2 Special Report Two Increase of Migrant Workers and Their Wage Growth
......... National Rural Fixed Site Survey Office ／018
1. Increase of Number of Migrant Workers .............................／018
2. Stable Population Structure of Migrant Workers ....................／019
3. Increase of Proportion of Inter-Provincial Migrant Workers ........／019
4. Stable Employment Structure of Migrant Workers ....................／020
5. Number of Days Staying Outside of Rural Migrant Workers
Kept at the Same Level as Last Year ..............................／020
6. Continuous Wage Growth of Migrant Workers with
Decreasing Growth Rate ...........................................／021
Ⅱ Part Two
3 Chapter 1 Five Challenges of China’s Economic Development
during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period ............. Cai Fang／023
1. “Aging before Affluence” ........................................／024
2. “Mezzogiorno Trap” ..............................................／026
3. “Knowledge is Useless” ..........................................／029
4. “Relying on Protection” .........................................／031
5. “Growing Pains” .................................................／032
4 Chapter 2 How Will China’s Demographic Transition Impact
Its Economic Development during the 12th
Five-Year Plan Period? ............................ Cai Fang／036
1. Introduction ......................................................／036
2. The Lewis Turning Point ...........................................／039
3. Challenges of Population Aging ....................................／044
4. Policy Adjustments and Choices ....................................／048
5. Conclusions .......................................................／053
5 Chapter 3 The New Elements of Chinese Labor Market
...................................... Cai Fang, Wang Meiyan／056
1. Demographic Transition and the Generational Changes
of Migrant Workers ...............................................／057
2. The Lewis Turning Point and Wage Growth ...........................／062
3. The “Creative Destruction”of China’s Manufacturing .............／065
4. The Development of Labor Market Institutions ......................／067
6 Chapter 4 Number and Structure of China’s Employment:
Re-estimates and Discussions .......... Du Yang, Wang Meiyan／070
1. Introduction ......................................................／070
2. Overestimation of Number of Agricultural Employment
and Re-estimates .................................................／072
3. The Statistical Bias of Urban Employment and Re-estimates .........／075
4. Discussions on Number of Employment and its Structure .............／078
5. Conclusions .......................................................／083
7 Chapter 5 Urban Employment, Non-agricultural Employment
and Urbanization ............................... Wang Meiyan／085
1. The Relationship between Urban Employment and Urbanization ........／086
2. Forecast on Urban Employment and Urbanization .....................／091
3. Can Labor Supply Meet the Demand of Urban Employment
Growth Brought by Urbanization? ..................................／094
4. The Relationship between Non-agricultural Employment
and Urbanization .................................................／096
5. Main Conclusions ..................................................／100
8 Chapter 6 Changes of China’s Natural Unemployment Rate
and Its Implications ...................... Du Yang, Lu Yang／103
1. Introduction ......................................................／103
2. Changes of China’s Labor Market and Changes of Unemployment Nature／106
3. The Level of China’s Natural Unemployment Rate ...................／108
4. Examination on Phillips Curve .....................................／116
5. Policy Suggestions on Tackling Unemployment .......................／118
9 Chapter 7 The Employment Features of Middle-income
Countries and Employment Policies during
the 12th Five-Year Plan Period ...................... Qu Yue／121
1. Middle-income Countries and Employment Elasticity .................／121
2. The Reference of Similar Development Stage-Japan
during Middle-income Period ......................................／124
3. Employment Elasticity of Japan during Similar Development Stage ...／130
4. Discussions on China’s Employment Elasticity during
the 12th Five-Year Plan Period ...................................／134
10 Chapter 8 Changes of Employment Elasticity and
Its Implications to the Employment Policy
during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period ............ Qu Xiaobo／138
1. Discussions and Explanations on Employment Elasticity .............／138
2. How to Look at Studies on China’s Employment Elasticity? .........／144
3. Implications to the Employment Policy during
the 12th Five-Year Plan Period ...................................／147
11 Chapter 9 The Industrial Structure Changes of Employment and
Regional Transfer during the 12th Five-Year Plan Period
................................................. Wu Yaowu／153
1. Rapid Increase of Non-agricultural Employment and
the Concentration of New Jobs in Urban Areas .....................／154
2. Estimation on Employment Elasticity ...............................／156
3. Number and Regional Distribution of New Jobs ......................／160
4. Regional Changes of Labor Migration ...............................／167
5. Conclusions .......................................................／169
12 Chapter 10 Wages Growth, Wages Convergence, and
Lewis Turning Point in China ........... Cai Fang, Du Yang／173
1. Introduction ......................................................／173
2. The Increasing Trend of Wages for Unskilled Labor .................／175
3. Wage Convergence on the Labor Market ..............................／178
4. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions ................................／185
13 Chapter 11 Rural Migrant Workers’Income Level and Its
Changes-Estimates Based on Data fromDifferent Sources
.................... Zhang Zhanxin, Zhao Wen and Wang Qiao／191
1. Sample Data Collected in Sending Areas ............................／192
2. Sample Data Collected in Receiving Areas ..........................／194
3. A Survey in An Urban Area-Spatial Distribution and Income
Characteristics of Rural Migrant Workers to Ningbo ...............／198
4. Income Inequality between Rural Migrant Workers and Local Residents／200
5. Summary and Discussions ...........................................／203
14 Chapter 12 Intensified Reform of Labor Market and
the Abolishment of Rural-Urban Divide
................................. Zhang Zhanxin, Hou Huili／206
1. The System of Rural-Urban Divide and the Early Reform Impact On It ／208
2. Strategic Measures to Intensify Labor Market Reform ...............／210
3. The Significance of the Reform in the First Decade of
the New Millennium ...............................................／214
4. Local-Migrant Segmentations in the City Level and
the Community Level ..............................................／216
5. Diminishing Inequality of Hukou Status ............................／221
6. Conclusions and Discussions .......................................／224
15 Chapter 13 The Impact of Rural Labor’s Migration on Income
Gap Statistics of Rural and Urban Residents
....................... Gao Wenshu, Zhao Wen and Cheng Jie／228
1. The Difficulties of Covering Migration Families
in the Urban Resident Household Survey ...........................／229
2. The Difficulties to Collect the Income Information of
Out-migrant Members in Rural Resident Households .................／233
3. Considerable Missing of Rural Migrant Labors
in the Urban Resident Household Survey ...........................／236
4. Re-estimating the Income Gap between Rural and Urban Residents ....／239
5. Conclusions and Discussions .......................................／241
16 Chapter 14 Hukou System Reform and Unification of
Rural-urban Social Welfare ...................... Cai Fang／243
1. Introduction ......................................................／243
2. Hukou System Reform as Institutional Transition ...................／245
3. Lewis Turning Point and Reform Incentives .........................／248
4. New Wave of Hukou System Reform ...................................／251
5. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions ................................／255
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