A Research on the Women’s Fertility Willingness in China: In Perspective of Wage Earning
Abstracts: Under normal conditions, we can predict the dynamic development of population in the future in terms of the fertility level and willingness. To study the women’s fertility, it is necessary to take into account of the tight planning and controlling constraint on the number of births.Investigated subject of women that have already labored their first child, this paper aims at finding out the determining variables for their birth willingness according to the micro data acquired from our typical survey. The results show that: around 30% of the women that we have investigated wish to have one more child according to the calculation of each group; the years in which they were born explains the inter-temporal difference of fertility willingness; education and other variables significantly impact on their willingness. When controlling the difference between urban and rural Hukou, the dummy of ethnic minority and the gender of first-born child, the results are still robust. Using the wage of women as a proxy variable of work participation, this paper finds that the education return for the women at child-bearing age stabilizes between 8% and 9.2% when we control the age and the difference between rural and urban Hukou. The policy signification is that: the adjustment of child-bearing policy needs to dynamically measure the change of women’s birth willingness of different age group; the women at bearing age will naturally trade off between work and reproduction; it is necessary to pay close attention to the change of the gap between the policy-directed birth rate and the real birth rate of higher educated women in urban areas.
Keywords: reproduction, fertility willingness, typical survey, population transmission
JEL Classification: J13, J21, C81, C92