内容提要：如何实现经济持续稳定增长是中等收入阶段国家和地区面临的主要问题。对中国等几个已经跨越中等收入阶段国家和地区的分析表明，合理的产业发展策略和有序的城市化进程是实现跨越的基础。产业结构演变应遵循合理次序，工业化阶段不可逾越，城市化应循序渐进。本文利用1989-2010年的地市级统计数据和系统广义矩（GMM）动态面板估计方法，估算了工业化和城市化对地区经济增长的影响，进而分析产业发展战略的合理性。结果表明，在当前阶段，大多数地区的经济增长依赖于工业化和城市化，两者的紧密配合是现阶段中国地区经济稳步发展的关键。人力资本培育和科研创新是形成地区竞争力的关键。因此，应充分发挥工业化和城市化对经济增长的带动作用，努力优化产业结构，培养人力资本，提高自主创新能力，促进经济快速增长。
关键词：工业化 城市化 经济增长 中等收入阶段
Industrialization,Urbanization and Chinas Regional Economic Development:on Crossover of Middle Income Stage
Abstract： How to maintain a steady economic growth is one of the main issues faced by middle income countries. It is also one of issues faced by Chinese economy. Analysis on some of the areas who passed middle income stage shows that the harmonious relationship between industrialization and urbanization is a key for steady economic development,which is one of the bases for crossover. Experience from developed areas is beneficial for lagged areas of China. Using prefecture level statistic data from 1989-2010,this paper analyzes the relationship between industrialization and urbanization and their effect on regional economic development. Regression results show that at the present stage,regional economic development relies on industrialization and urbanization,as well as human capital accumulation and science and technology innovation. Thus,for most areas,in order to accelerate economic development,more attention should be paid on urbanization and industrialization so as to take full use of their promotion on economic growth. Moreover,concerning the long time economic development,hinterland area should also focus on industrial structure adjustment and human capital fostering.
Keywords： industrialization,urbanization,economic growth,middle income stage
JEL Classification： O11,O14,O18
文章出处：劳动经济研究，2014年第2卷第2期,p60-82