内容提要：本文以刘易斯发展模型为基础，将其延展开来系统地对中国近年来发生的一系列经济问题进行理论分析。我们发现，近年来出现的劳动力短缺和工资上涨现象并不是因为中国的剩余劳动力已经用完，而是因为在中国特殊的农村土地制度和以其为基础的城乡户籍制度下，农民工无法在城市定居，便选择了“早退”出城市劳动力供给，从而导致了在仍然存在大量农民的情况下的结构性劳动力短缺。加快农民工市民化，防止工业化进程中途停滞，是本文理论分析自然得出的政策结论。

关键词：民工荒、刘易斯拐点、农民工早退、市民化

“Early Withdrawal of Migrant Workers” and Newtype Urbanization：Lewis Model and Current Economic Issues of China

Fan Gang1 & Zheng Xin2

（HSBC School of Business， Peking University1; China Development Institute12）

Abstract： Extending the analyses by Lewis Model， the paper shows that the recent labor shortage and wage increase of migrant workers in Chinas coastal areas are not as a case after Lewis Turning Point or the completion of labor reallocation， instead， it is because the “early withdrawal” of migrant workers from urban labor supply due to their being unable to stay in cities under the current rural land system and urban residential registration system The policy implication of the analyses is naturally to speed up the urbanization of rural migrants in order to continue the industrialization.

Keywords: shortage of migrant workers， Lewis Turning Point， early withdrawal of migrant workers， urbanization

JEL Classification: J40， O14， O53

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樊纲，北京大学汇丰商学院、综合开发研究院（中国·深圳），电子邮箱：fangang@neri.org.cn

郑鑫，综合开发研究院（中国·深圳），电子邮箱：zhxin@cdi.org.cn

文章出处：劳动经济研究，2014年第2卷第3期