摘要: 当前我国人口性别结构长期失衡的状况加剧了男性婚姻挤压，贫困地区农村男性大龄未婚或终身不婚问题突出。研究历史能够对现实问题提供借鉴，利用中国多世代人口数据库—辽宁部分，运用离散时间事件史分析技术和logit 回归模型，研究了1749 ～ 1909 年清代辽东旗人社会中的男性失婚问题。研究发现: 超过20% 的30 岁及以上男性仍未结婚，大约15%的男性终身不婚; 包括个体、家庭、亲属关系和地区在内的微观、中观和宏观因素共同决定了男性的婚姻状态，年龄越大、有残疾、无职位的男性未婚的机会比率更大，父母一方或双方在世、父亲或叔伯有职位的男性未婚的机会比率更低; 微观、中观和宏观因素同样决定了未婚男性的居住模式，年龄越大、有残疾、父母不在世的男性独住的机会比率越大，叔伯有职位的男性独住的机会比率越小，分家是导致未婚男性独住的重要事件。
关键词: 大龄未婚; 失婚; 清代; 辽东; 中国多世代人口数据库—辽宁部分
A Study of Males’Out-of-Marriage in Bannerman Society of East Liaoning in Qing Dynasty: Based on CMGPD-LN
Abstract: Sex unbalance existed for a very long time and this condition makes male marriage squeeze worse，especially for males lived in poor rural area． History study can be used to analysis present problems． Use CMGPD-LN and apply both discrete event history analysis and logistic regression analysis to study males’out-of-marriage in Bannerman society of East Liaoning in the period of 1749 － 1909． The results show that: 1st，over 20% males aged over 30 years old did not married and 15% males never married; 2nd，factors in micro，meso and macro level，including individual characteristics，parents’characteristics，kinship relations and region，have significant effect on males’out-of-marriage; 3th，beside factors in micro，meso and macro level，household division has significant influence on unmarried males’living arrangements．
Keywords: aged forced un-married; out-of-marriage; Qing Dynasty; East Liaoning; CMGPD-LN
文章出处：人口与经济，2013年第2期