摘要: 文章根据公布的第六次人口普查的人口总数,利用第五次人口普查的人口数据,通过模型模拟的方法对中国2000～2010年的平均生育水平进行了估算。结果发现,官方公布的统计数据中,普查的人口总数和历年的总和生育率存在明显的自相矛盾;如果2010年第六次普查的人口总数是真实的,则历年公布的总和生育率明显偏低。在考虑2000年五普人口总数存在低估的情况下,文章估计2000年以来的平均总和生育率为1.57左右。

关键词: 六普； 五普； 总和生育率； 人口预测模型； 生育水平

Estimating China’s Fertility Level Since 2000: Based on the 6th Population Census

Abstract:  With recently published data from the 6th Population Census, in this paper we use the population forecasting model constructed and the data from the 5th Population Census to estimate the 10 years' average fertility level since 2000. The results bring out the unquestionable fact: the official demographic data, from historical census and surveys, contain obvious self- contradictory errors on the total population. The annually total fertility rate should not be in such unreasonable low level if the 6th census data is correct.From what is discussed in this paper, we can draw a conclusion that the average total fertility rate since 2000 is approximately about 1.57 under the condition that the total population based on the 5th Census is underestimated.

文章出处：中国人口科学，2012年第5期